A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035
36
129
840
2035
63%
chance

To qualify for a yes, the movie should portray negative actions the CCP took during the Covid crisis.

It should be at least partly fictionalized and not a documentary.

It should have a budget of at least 100m USD and be released before jan 1 2035

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bought Ṁ70 of NO

Is 100m USD inflation adjusted?

predicts NO

@RobertCousineau no it's absolute money

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I don't understand it because a menacing CCP is an amazing villain. But Hollywood is too in bed with them to actually do it apparently. So I'm voting no for emotional arbitrage

The Big Short had a budget of 50 million USD, according to google. It's not clear why a movie about COVID, even if at least partly fictionalized, would cost more than that movie (which had many stars).

@NicholasKross In writing the claim I was thinking something big, like a top thriller. You have a point that there is another type of market that could be made, but that's not what this one covers.

/StrayClimb/covidrelated-fiction-movie-comes-ou

I'm going to keep creating variants of the market until I figure out what's going on.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@StrayClimb I think I know what you're getting at, so let me give you my completely vibes based "explanation". In a nutshell, COVID is remembered as a fictional event (a sci-fi/apocalyptic scenarios specifically), which incidentally happened to take place in the real world and not a fictional universe. Hence you can't feature it in another work of fiction, since that would be plagiarism.

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