Will any AI cause an international incident before August 2024? (M1300 subsidy)
Aug 1

Will resolve YES if AI instigates or is directly involved in a scandal, conflict, or other such issue affecting relations between world actors (governments, leaders, economies, organizations etc.). No matter how big, it must have repercussions beyond a single nation.

Some examples for YES:

  • Deepfakes spark an argument between heads of state when one of them thought they were publically insulted by the other

  • Advanced autonomous robots shut down a major shipping port

  • Corporate saboteurs wield classified intel leaked by an LLM against a significant rival

    • (would still need to hit beyond a single nation; could involve nationalized companies or multinationals with ripple effects, etc.)

  • An assassination attempt is made against an internationally-renowned celebrity using strategies or data collection provided by an AI

  • Disruption by stock-trading AIs cause a shockwave that crashes companies around the globe

  • Singularity

It doesn't have to be extreme, but hopefully those examples give some idea of the allowable possibility space.

Stuff that probably wouldn't hit the bar, imo:

  • An AI built in California is granted control over San Francisco's public utilities and causes a wave of power outages, homelessness, and starvation in the city

  • A picture of a self-driving car parked safely but illegally in front of the Kremlin is spread online

  • A prime minister uses an LLM to do research on a colleague from another country and accidentally calls their colleague's spouse by the wrong name

    • (so long as that only spawns silly thinkpieces and doesn't cause peace talks to fall through, one side to enact trade sanctions, or create a feud between the two, etc.)

  • Sensitive intel about espionage is leaked because of AI, but the countries involved decide to declassify it and shake hands amicably

  • Internal AI-powered cyberattacks lead a country to a disastrous civil war

  • A ton of wealthy people lose money because their hedge fund managers are worse than a computer

If discussion gets heated and I am biased by any investment in the market, I'm open to resolving based on a neutral party's determination, though I'll probably rid myself of my stake first. I also reserve the right to temporarily close the market if we need to sort out contentious minutiae at some point before continuing.

If the market reaches the close date without any qualifying incident, it resolves NO.

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Stralor if this linked market is resolved yes before aug 2024, will yours resolve yes also?

@firstuserhere likely! if it isn't widely reported or only has local (non-international) knock-on effects, then no. but most instances I can imagine would line up.

@Stralor the bar here is about strained international relations or effects. does the stock market pausing for 24 hours mean a country threatens sanctions until emergency regulations are passed? easy yes. does the stock market pause, resume, and everyone goes about their business shaking their heads? then no

bought Ṁ0 of YES

(I'm low on mana for liquidity. Maybe someone would be so kind as to showcase this?)

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