Of the world's current highest ultra-wealthy, who will be the last standing?
Basic
12
1.2k
2030
15%
Bernard Arnault
33%
Elon Musk
22%
Jeff Bezos
10%
Larry Ellison
5%
Warren Buffett

(Forbes used as source for this shortlist)

"Players" are eliminated if, after market creation 23 Feb 2024, they:

  • die

  • cease being a billionaire (no, becoming a trillionaire doesn't count)

  • become wheelchair-bound

  • or publicly fall down (must fall such that they are no longer supported by either foot, video proof required)

Last player standing wins and resolves YES. Others resolve NO as they are eliminated.

Close date may change as necessary.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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opened a Ṁ75 Warren Buffett NO at 25% order

I put in small limits at 15 and 25 for each to add some counterparty for y'all

bought Ṁ120 Warren Buffett NO

@Stralor wait is that just to make us want to participate? the world where warren buffett is the last guy standing is absolutely terrifying

@Bayesian yes, I fully expect to lose mana on those limits. It's a common practice of mine to subsidize my markets in this way to encourage early traders.

betting everything down to 20%, since everyhting has to sum to 100%

@duck_master go wild. I would have done a sum-to-one market but I wanna be able to resolve NOs as they go