As of recent reports, the top 1% of U.S. wealth holders control nearly 30% of the nation's wealth. This market seeks to predict whether this concentration will increase to over 50% by the end of 2025. Resolution will be based on official statistics from the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts or similar authoritative sources.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged that the market question was AI-generated and may contain errors. They have stated they are fixing it.
Changed current estimate to the correct 30% and will use https://www.macrotrends.net/3160/us-top-1-wealth-share to resolve this. Prediction remains 50%
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Can you clarify what source you will use to resolve the market? I am not seeing anything similar to the 44% share statistic cited above. Consider
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBST01134
or
https://www.macrotrends.net/3160/us-top-1-wealth-share
@GageMason Thanks for updating, this seems virtually impossible in the coming year but the same question for 2030 or later could be interesting!
@Jwags agreed but hey, how risk high reward. I thought Trump being elected again was gonna be virtually impossible, I thought there was bill passing was going to be impossible. At least I hoped it was. I thought it would be impossible for Diddy to be not guilty, but here we are, you know?.
@GageMason Ha, that's fair - I guess I meant to write something more like "this is an interesting topic and if you opened identical markets for years further into the future you'd likely get a good number of traders"