Manifold Pivot Prop Bets
Prop BetsManifoldManifold Business FutureManifold FeaturesManifold Users
Basic
25
Ṁ4.0k
Oct 1
95%
Mana is in a separate economy
92%
Payouts only available to US residents to start
85%
Prize Points are removed / all converted to Mana
69%
$10k mana bought or new real money currency deposited on any day w/in a week of release
68%
Airdrop of new currency announced
66%
James is the one to post the announcement in Discord
51%
There is a currency is named "Mana Cash"
50%
There is a pre-announcement at least a week beforehand with the details of what to expect
44%
Sports markets can't involve real money / prize points / etc
40%
500+ new user signups on any day w/in a week of release
39%
An Above the Fold substack post about the pivot is posted within a week
16%
"Twomba" or "SweepiesCoin" or "Sweepies" mentioned in announcement
12%
The announcement includes a video with any Manifold staff in it
11%
Announcement includes the word "Spice"
5%
Politics markets can't involve real money / prize points / etc

These resolve according to the results and release announcement of the second stage of the Pivot, aka whenever real money gets activated or when it's decided that real money won't be activated, plus a up to a week for any announcement to trickle in over the various avenues.

For options about what the release announcement includes, all of the following qualify additively:

  • an email newsletter blast, if it happens

  • an on-site announcement page, if it exists

  • the discord announcement/update (almost certainly happens)

  • any pre-release announcement(s)

The announcement doesn't include:

  • clarifying comments and responses by staff

  • anything a mod says

Close date is speculative and subject to change.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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6 Comments
24 Holders
102 Trades
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edited "James posts the announcement in Discord" to "James is the one to post the announcement in Discord". this was my intent and I believe traders so far understood that but I noticed there was ambiguity that might catch people off guard

"Twomba" or "SweepiesCoin" or "Sweepies" mentioned in announcement

@nikki like, the words? or what they represent?

bought Ṁ75 James is the one to ... YES

the actual word

I'm gonna put them in quotes

So most of these are about the announcement right? But some are separately about the future release?

I.e. if next week they say "finally our version of real money trading arrives Sept 25th" some of these resolve based on that announcement whereas "$10k mana bought" refers to when it's actually available?

(Ian mentioned an announcement likely next week and I doubt that will involve anything being launched)

yep! should I count a pre-release announcement as the announcement?

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