The Russo-Ukrainian War includes the current invasion by Russia.

This is an experimental attempt to measure the counterfactual. Instead of conditional N/As, conditional options, scaled (dice roll) zoom ins, or some such, this market has what I call "inverting" resolutions.

You're welcome to add more options, too!

Resolution

• If the war is over, business as usual

  • everything TRUE resolves YES

  • everything FALSE resolves NO

• If the war is ongoing, it's inverted

  • TRUE -> NO

  • FALSE -> YES

Nitpicks:

• Anything unknown when the war ends (or this market closes) will be given a week for proof to surface, and otherwise will resolve as FALSE

• The war is over if it comes to a peace resolution, one of the countries is wholly annexed, a side surrenders, or there's another definitive end to the conflict. Temporary ceasefires or a state of frozen conflict don't count.

How to read this market

"If X happens, is the war likely to end?"

• If an option at high value happens it's more likely to end. That is to say it's "correlated" to the end of the war.

• And the reverse is also true. If an option at low value happens the war is more likely to continue. It's "anti-correlated."

• Moreover, you can infer the effects of options that don't happen.

The further away the value is from the base rate odds of the war ending indicates a combination of how dramatic the effect would be + how likely it is to happen.

How to bet on this market

The basic question is, "How might this affect the timeline of the war?" If it shortens it, the simple answer is to bet YES, if it lengthens it, the simple answer is to bet NO.

However, events with low odds of happening should have less effect and be centered around the two focal points (War Ending or War Not Ending).

For more discussion of the math behind how this works and how to bet optimally, see my original Inverting Resolutions market: /Stralor/inversion-resolutions-what-would-be

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For reference (resolution may differ slightly):