Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a formal peace treaty or armistice agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially signed and publicly announced before January 1, 2026. The agreement must be recognized by the United Nations or a majority of UN Security Council permanent members. The primary source for resolution will be official statements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, as reported by major international news outlets such as Reuters, Associated Press, or the BBC. If no such agreement is reached and publicly announced by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No". A mere cessation of hostilities, ceasefire without a formal agreement, or a frozen conflict will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

Background

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, escalating the conflict that started in 2014. The conflict has involved significant military operations, territorial changes, and international sanctions against Russia. As of late 2024, peace negotiations have been intermittent and largely unsuccessful, with both sides maintaining maximalist positions on territorial integrity and security guarantees.

Considerations

Defining the "end" of a conflict can be complex, as hostilities may diminish or cease without a formal political resolution. This market specifically requires a signed and publicly recognized peace treaty or armistice, rather than a de facto end to fighting or a frozen conflict, to resolve as "Yes". Traders should consider the likelihood of a formal diplomatic resolution acceptable to both parties within the specified timeframe, given the current geopolitical landscape and stated objectives of the involved nations.