I've started with some answers that I think exemplify players that could receive an odd 5th placed vote, that could be questionable. Add more that fit in that range (or a different range if you think I've calibrated off).
The NFL MVP voting system consists of 50 media members, as selected by the associated press, choosing a first-fifth place vote for MVP (with different points given based on their ranking 10/5/3/2/1).
Results from last year:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35626954/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-wins-2nd-career-nfl-mvp-award
Note that some players only received 1 point (5th place vote). They (along with everyone else) would qualify for this. (Denny Kellington was a gesture, and only players should be offered as answers for this question).
This market will close at the conclusion of the regular season (so before the MVP votes are announced), so your bets should weigh "likeliness of a player getting a point" with "likeliness that the Manifold voters will think they deserved a point less than others that you expect to get a point that are in this market". If no listed players receive a point then the market will resolve N/A (not Other).
The "Least Deserving by Manifold" will be decided by a week long poll (after MVP results are announced) asking:
"Which of the following NFL Players that received at least one 1st-5th MVP vote was least deserving of getting a vote?"
The answers for the poll will be all the players added here that did in fact receive an MVP point. If a player added does not receive an MVP vote, they cannot win (and won't be in the poll). Whoever is the winner of that poll will win this market.
Let me know if this makes sense as a market (it's a bit experimental on my part), or if you have any questions or suggestions!
It was explained above, but to avoid confusion about close/resolution date:
This market will close for betting before MVP votes are released. However, the market will not resolve then. It will wait for the poll of all qualifying players will be created and run for a week. The player that wins that poll will then be the winner of this market, and this market will resolve then.
Other Fun MVP Markets (Not just Mine):
/JoshuaWilkes/who-will-be-the-2023-nfl-mvp
/StopPunting/how-many-different-players-will-rec
/StopPunting/what-player-will-manifold-consider
/ChinmayTheMathGuy/how-many-1st-place-votes-will-the-n
/StopPunting/which-nfl-quarterbacks-will-receive
/SethWalder/will-a-nonquarterback-receive-at-le
/StopPunting/which-5-players-will-aaron-schatz-d
/StopPunting/which-nfl-quarterbacks-will-receive
/StopPunting/will-player-that-receives-the-most
1,000
3.00My apologies for the delay! I've listen the poll here, where it will run for a week.
https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/which-of-the-following-nfl-players
Now that it's closed, once the full voting is released (I'd imagine it will be soon given the ceremony is tonight), I'll poll for a week all those listed that received at least a 5th place vote.
One thing I realized is that I can't N/A individual answers (despite saying I would before), so "Other" will have to resolve "NO". Given that other bettors were under that impression, I can't have "Other's" get all unlisted unlikely players (which would also be subjective). I've mana-gammed "Other" bettors for their position (which also works since I am the only "NO" position for "Other").
Let me know if that's a sufficient solution (sorry to hurt your graphs haha)! @KnowNothing @SethWalder @Darj @RJPerez
@AlexanderMiller just a heads up that this closes before the full vote is public (then running a poll before resolving) + Other will resolve as N/A
@SethWalder @Darj @KnowNothing just clarified the criteria, so that if no player listed or added received a point it wouldn't result in "Other" resolution (N/A instead). Not sure if that changes anything, just figured that may have been ambiguous.