Matthew Yglesias 2024 preds vs Manifold Time Capsule: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
Matthew Yglesias 2024 preds vs Manifold Time Capsule: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
5
130Ṁ106
resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YES

A time-sensitive copy of this market:

This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.

This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.

Matt predicts 60% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

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