I ran markets (see below) that closed on 1/14 to capture Manifold predictions vs those that 

. I will track and update as those markets resolve. If Manifold has a better (lower) Brier score at the end of the year, this resolves "YES", if Matt Yglesias performs better then this resolves "NO". I missed a couple of questions, so they have been skipped over and won't count of either sides Brier score.

 also has a similar market (that manually noted the question percentage on 1/14 instead of closing):