Background

The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in 2024 and continue into 2025 as inflation shows signs of cooling. Current forecasts from major financial institutions suggest multiple rate cuts throughout 2025, with expectations ranging from 2-3 cuts (as of January 2025).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of times the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduces the federal funds rate target range during calendar year 2025 (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025).

• Each reduction in the target range counts as one cut, regardless of the size of the cut

• Cuts must be to the federal funds rate target range (not other policy tools)

Clarification

• This market only counts the number of times the Fed cuts rates. If rates are raised, that has no bearing on this market. If the Fed cuts, raises, then cuts rates again, that would count as two.

The FOMC has planned to meet at the following dates, but they may make cuts at other times as well: