By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025?

In a year from today, will I have a satisfactory framework for describing the epistemology of AI alignment?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will there be a gpt-4 quality LLM with distributed inference by the end of 2024?

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Will any image model available to the public be able to generate arbitrary non-adversarial text before 2025?