Considering the articles presented, and the policy of deliberate nuclear ambiguity on the part of Israel, I intend to resolve this at 90% tomorrow. I’m leaving time for any additional arguments for or against this decision. In the absence of concrete, official acknowledgement, I can’t see rating it 100%, but in the presence of so many official ‘slips of the tongue’ there’s a strong argument that they do in fact possess a nuclear arsenal.
I also acknowledge that the nature of this question invites ambiguity, and I’ll be careful to avoid that in the future.
Thanks for all the great input. ✌️
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https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3338783,00.html
In 2006 the Israeli PM said they have them
@Stevelhtd2 one more: SA has documents purporting to show Israel offering to sell them nuclear weapons in the 70s
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/23/israel-south-africa-nuclear-weapons
I guess my strongest argument for YES would be that they never deny that they have it.
The second strongest argument is that when their former engineer Vanunu went public to the British press and leaked photos and documents, they drugged and kidnapped him, brought him back to Israel, convicted him of treason and locked him in solitary confinement for a decade. They still won't let him leave the country.
If he was lying and made it all up, then that seems like a huge waste of time and terrible geopolitical strategy all to punish a fabulist for no real national security reason.
@JeromeHPowell Yet there’s no publicly acknowledged proof, they deny it, they’ve not signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty, and they historically claim that they won’t be the first country to induce nuclear weapons to the Middle East. 🤷🏼
@Stevelhtd2 sure, but by almost every news organisation has said that they deny it but they definitely have them
@Stevelhtd2 but what would make you resolve this Yes, it sounds like this is just never gonna resolve.
@JeromeHPowell it’s pretty obvious, but a definitive confirmation from the Israeli government would be conclusive, as would a nuclear detonation.
With the nuclear threat level between Israel and Iran rising, and the idea surfacing that Netanyahu threatened to nuke Iran if the US didn’t step in to hit Iranian nuclear facilities, the question is relevant and timely.
Feel free to ignore this question if it doesn’t suit your tastes. You’re not required to participate. My willingness to continue this debate has expired.
✌️
@Stevelhtd2 ok man, i’m not sure if you’re fully sure how Manifold works but talking about the resolution criteria of questions is like one of the most core parts of this website, I’m sorry if you got offended from me asking I just wanted to clarify, though I do think this question better be will Israel acknowledge/detonate a nuclear weapon not if they actually have them because those are two very different questions
@Stevelhtd2 Yeah, you need to be very clear about this sort of thing. It doesn't really seem that predictive.
@realDonaldTrump yes, it is weird, the answer to the question is yes but the resolution of this will most likely be 50% or no
@JeromeHPowell Your opinion is polarized, but the market doesn’t appear so clear after all. Its too bad you created unnecessary controversy, or there might more input for a more decisive prediction in this market.
@Stevelhtd2 the market probability here literally reflects the point I made and I haven’t even touched the market, weird isn’t it?…?
@JeromeHPowell believe what you want, but your point was, “of course they do,” and the market is undecided.
By your logic, no matter what happens in the market, you’d be convinced you were correct.
@JeromeHPowell I have no hard feelings here. Not at all. I wish you the best in this new year. It would be better for us all if nobody had these weapons.