Its literally recognised as a nuclear power by like everyone

@JeromeHPowell Yet there’s no publicly acknowledged proof, they deny it, they’ve not signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty, and they historically claim that they won’t be the first country to induce nuclear weapons to the Middle East. 🤷🏼

@Stevelhtd2 sure, but by almost every news organisation has said that they deny it but they definitely have them

@JeromeHPowell thank you for confirming that this is a good question for this platform

@Stevelhtd2 but what would make you resolve this Yes, it sounds like this is just never gonna resolve.

@JeromeHPowell will bibi have to show up in the comment section here

@JeromeHPowell if it remains inconclusive at the end time, I’ll resolve it at 50%

@Stevelhtd2 sure, but give me like the minimum example which something would make it conclusive

@JeromeHPowell it’s pretty obvious, but a definitive confirmation from the Israeli government would be conclusive, as would a nuclear detonation.

With the nuclear threat level between Israel and Iran rising, and the idea surfacing that Netanyahu threatened to nuke Iran if the US didn’t step in to hit Iranian nuclear facilities, the question is relevant and timely.

Feel free to ignore this question if it doesn’t suit your tastes. You’re not required to participate. My willingness to continue this debate has expired.

✌️

@Stevelhtd2 ok man, i’m not sure if you’re fully sure how Manifold works but talking about the resolution criteria of questions is like one of the most core parts of this website, I’m sorry if you got offended from me asking I just wanted to clarify, though I do think this question better be will Israel acknowledge/detonate a nuclear weapon not if they actually have them because those are two very different questions

@Stevelhtd2 Yeah, you need to be very clear about this sort of thing. It doesn't really seem that predictive.

@realDonaldTrump yes, it is weird, the answer to the question is yes but the resolution of this will most likely be 50% or no

@JeromeHPowell Your opinion is polarized, but the market doesn’t appear so clear after all. Its too bad you created unnecessary controversy, or there might more input for a more decisive prediction in this market.

@Stevelhtd2 the market probability here literally reflects the point I made and I haven’t even touched the market, weird isn’t it?…?

either way, there’s no point in really arguing about this, we only have so much time in life and we shouldn’t spend it arguing with a stranger online, sorry for getting into this argument with you, we can agree to disagree

@JeromeHPowell believe what you want, but your point was, “of course they do,” and the market is undecided.

By your logic, no matter what happens in the market, you’d be convinced you were correct.

@JeromeHPowell I have no hard feelings here. Not at all. I wish you the best in this new year. It would be better for us all if nobody had these weapons.

@Stevelhtd2 have a great year man

@Stevelhtd2 Are you sure they deny it?