During the past few decades, a trend has occurred where most countries have eliminated Daylight Savings Time and switched to year-round standard time.
Some, like Russia, first attempted to use year-round daylight time before correcting the mistake with year-round standard time. Several years ago, Mexico eliminated Daylight Savings Time except in areas that are close to US states that observe it.
However, the US may buck that trend. A bill was introduced in 2022 to create year-round daylight time in the United States, but like has happened elsewhere, states using year-round standard time prevented its advance to the House floor.
This market resolves to YES if the Federal government mandates that all states, including those using year-round standard time currently, use year-round daylight time before December 31, 2029, and the US is still using year-round daylight time on December 31, 2029. If the US ceases to exist before then, it resolves to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Because most countries that have enacted year-round daylight time, including the US itself in the 1970s, have considered the change a failure and reverted it, this question requires that the switch is not immediately reverted.
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@EvanDaniel The reason for this requirement is because the US has done this multiple times before - in 1972, when it failed almost immediately, and during World War II, when people voted to end it as soon as the war was over. In the UK, they even tried "Double Daylight Savings Time," which was hated even more and reverted.
For some reason this idea keeps popping up and failing, so I want to get the true probability that it actually sticks, not just the probability that there is yet another failure because people think this time will be different for some reason.
@SteveSokolowski Right, that makes sense. I'm just saying that the requirement as written seems to match that intent for most years, but if the law is passed in Dec 2029, then repealed on Jan 1 2030, then this market will have already resolved Yes, which seems like it doesn't meet the intent.
@EvanDaniel That's correct, but some end date had to be specified.
I don't know about you, but any predictions about the world after 2030 are completely unknowable. We are probably six months out from weak AGI at this point, so I stopped planning for "retirement" and such.