Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems?
Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems?
54
1kṀ19kresolved Jun 14
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Boeing Starliner, which has been plauged with failures since its inception, had two additional helium leaks occur during the evening of June 5, hours after launch into orbit. Engineers spent the night troubleshooting the issue, and were only able to determine that the vehicle was "safe for now."
This market will resolve to YES if the capsule returns to Earth earlier or later than scheduled for any reason other than weather or ISS logistics, if the astronauts return to Earth by some other method, or if one of the astronauts is injured or killed by the Starliner. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.