Every month, Manifold users are invited to vote on polls that ask whether humans have achieved weak AGI. In the polls, the definition of "artificial general intelligence" is not provided except to state that manipulation of the physical world is not required for "weak" AGI. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close seven days later.
Currently, approximately one third of Manifold respondents believe that weak AGI has been achieved.
The trendline projects that Manifold will declare the achievement of weak AGI with half of users in agreement during February 2025. Excluding "no opinion" respondents, will Manifold make that declaration with one of the monthly polls during or before that date?
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Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if half of users agree that weak AGI has been achieved. This threshold was met in December 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
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