This market will resolve each of the justices' names to the way that they vote on any case that reaches the Supreme Court regarding Trump's access to the Colorado ballot due to the 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution.
The market will be decided on the opinion of whether Trump is ineligible for at least one election in the state of Colorado under any potential circumstance.
A NO resolution occurs if:
The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump is ineligible for any reason or with any condition
The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion making Trump ineligible, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling NO by taking no action
The court allows the existing lower court ruling to stand by denying certiorari
A N/A resolution occurs if the justice:
Recuses himself or herself
Dies
Resigns
Attaches his or her name to opinions that are unreconcilable on the topic of ballot access in Colorado
A YES resolution occurs if:
The justice authors or concurs in at least one opinion that believes that Trump is eligible to appear on the ballot under all conditions
The court is unable to agree and rules with a plurality opinion making Trump eligible, and the justice fails to address the topic in a dissent, therefore enabling YES by taking no action
The reasoning for why Trump is allowed ballot access is irrelevant, even if the justice claims some trivial reason like standing; however, the reasoning must be in the context of addressing the issue of the 14th amendment. Whether other cases involving Trump deny him access to Colorado's ballot is not relevant.
RELATED MARKETS:
/SteveSokolowski/will-each-supreme-court-justice-vot-94d54d2d4c3f
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3.00I am working right now but this evening I want to put the decision along with this question into Claude 3 Opus to check to make sure that all of the criteria in the question text are accurate to say the decision was unanimous.
Reports about the decision are that it was lost on a legal technicality, and that there are concurring opinions.
Manifold has not made an "undo" button available, so it needs to be right the first time.
This market seems at tension with markets estimating 20+% chance of a 9-0 ruling. In cases where 9-0, it seems pretty unlikely they would agree on unconditional access (seems more likely something where all agree on something like due process concerns, and all agree to just not wade into if was insurrection and if Trump was involved). Thus, some combination where the 9-0 estimate is too high, or the estimates putting justices like Thomas at 93+% could be too high.
@MarkHamill That's a condition, and therefore would be NO.
To resolve YES, Trump must be listed on the ballot just as any other person would be, with the same rights and responsibilities as a normal candidate.
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