In 2024, I started generating music with AI models. I've generally found that the latest models are now capable of outputting any sound that is possible. The limitations of AI music are now generally caused by my selecting the wrong inferences (it usually takes 600-1000 runs plus editing), not understanding song structure, or not understanding what listeners like and dislike.
Every time I publish a new release, which I've been doing about once or twice per month, I will post a poll to Manifold to bring it to users' attention. The polls are bet on with one of the related markets.
Once I feel that I have achieved a song that is satisfactory, I will attempt to get a radio station to play it, even if only as a novelty during a morning show or something like that. "Six Weeks From AGI" (https://soundcloud.com/steve-sokolowski-2/six-weeks-from-agi) may be sufficient or I may wait for another song later this year to try, but I will try before AGI is actually achieved and anyone will be able to generate something better than this with no effort.
If any station plays any portion of any song I have ever created where the entire sound is generated by AI, then this market will resolve to YES. If time runs out, it will resolve to NO.
Whether the song is played once, becomes a Billboard hit, or if a morning show of a small rural station decides to play part of the song to criticize what AI is able to achieve is not relevant to the resolution.
I intend to pay for and use the latest models and software tools as they are released, even if they cost money, although I believe the musical "Turing Test" has already been reached.
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Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): AI Created Song Clarification:
If an AGI model outputs MIDI files for instruments, which are then input into music production software to create the arrangement, that song will be considered an AI created song.
Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Paid advertisements featuring the song will not count towards a YES resolution.
Only earned media will count. This means the radio station must choose to play the song as part of its programming (e.g., during a show, as a novelty, for critique), not as a paid advertisement.
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