Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?
31
1kṀ5339
Dec 31
40%
chance

SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!

(Release date: 2025-03-29)

I will release a new song, with the above title, on or around April 4. I am confident that this song will receive at least the 10,000 listens in the title of the market.

If there are 10,000 views of the song on SoundCloud + YouTube combined before December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

UPDATED: Poll and song now released: /SteveSokolowski/i-am-gemini-pro-25-does-spinning-pl

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I am sure this market is an April Fools joke.

Can we make this 10007 listens? It was so bad that I made 6 other people at work listen to it, and by all rights that should not count. I'm afraid if anything, it may go viral for being so terrible.

This not on Spotify or sumn?

@LilSamzy It takes 3 weeks for a song to be published to Spotify after a "distribution" request is sent, so no. There's no advantage to doing it today as everything happens on Fridays, so I'll do it before the Friday deadline to get it there three Fridays after that.

A billion banana peels forecast market bust?
Maybe. Logic bends like heat-haze, fueled by must.

@KevinBlaw I take everything back. It’s like John Lennon and Bob Dylan had a baby. But isn’t there a typo? Shouldn’t it be “fueled by (Elon) Musk”?

You expect it to be bad and somehow it’s worse. I feel my mana is safe if a 10 second laugh and listen session doesn’t count as a listen.

Could one of the YES traders introduce the song to the LessWrong forums? I don't have an account there and someone will probably censor the new account claiming this is spam or something.

Is there a link that I can listen to it and mock it without negatively impacting my NO

wager?

@KevinBlaw What happened to your insightful legal analysis? Perhaps you hadn't considered that there might be a massive trove of evidence that wasn't attached to the first complaint?

Did you ever come up with your own opinion on the case's merits, or did you just go along with the "law students" who were claiming in January the case was nonsense?

@SteveSokolowski I was disappointed by the amended complaint. It seemed to be an admission that there were flaws in the original that the AI didn’t foresee that were pointed out by the motions to dismiss. I didn’t read the amended complaint though.

@KevinBlaw So you were disappointed in something you didn't read. I'm glad you cleared that up.

@SteveSokolowski lol. What I meant was that if you had to file one, it meant the complaint was deficient. I don’t have the time to read the amended one to see if it is similarly deficient. Is there a law student thread on the new one?

@KevinBlaw Well, if you're going to make markets on the topic, then I would suggest reading the complaint before spending mana on them.

As the "law students" (if they even were students) missed quite a bit the last time, I might advise reading the complaint yourself if you're going to make comments based on hearsay.

@SteveSokolowski I haven't made markets on it.

How about answering my question instead of attacking me?

@KevinBlaw No. I won't answer questions about the facts of the case or what law students are saying, only about the AI usage related to the case.

@SteveSokolowski why didn't your AI realize the deficiencies in the complaint that would have avoided the necessity of filing an amended complaint based on an apparently valid motion to dismiss?

@KevinBlaw I'm willing to answer questions about how I used AI, not about the specific recommendations or strategy it made.

@SteveSokolowski how did you use AI in such a way that it didn't realize the first complaint was deficient and therefore required another bite of the apple?

Do you know if someone presses play does it count as a listen even if they only listen for 10 seconds?

@WrongoPhD Probably not. Definitely not on YouTube, and I'm pretty sure SoundCloud is similarly strict.

@SteveSokolowski is it uploaded to YT yet?

@Ziddletwix Just did. It's at https://youtu.be/vTUSGF58tIk. I haven't linked to it from anywhere yet, and will focus on https://shoemakervillage.org/spinning_plates.html as the entry point, which goes to Soundcloud, I think, but the YouTube copy might get some additional listeners through their recommendations somehow.

It looks like @Ziddletwix is going big on this one. I wonder if the LessWrong forums are a good place to post this to see if everyone there dismisses it as meaningless word prediction.

@SteveSokolowski

That convinces me that there is no longer anything wrong with any of these works - it's just about marketing now. I'll withdraw the sweepstakes earnings - $103 - that I got for free, and spend it on marketing this and the other works.

if this is true I think it's extremely likely that a bit of hustle + some portion of that $103 spent on marketing will push it to 10k!

i'm sure lesswrong is a fine place to start given their interest in AI, but i'd assume the odds of getting traction in any specific place are low so it's just a volume game of posting it in a lot of different spots & seeing where it takes off

@Ziddletwix The Manifold developers probably made a big mistake with giving away free money despite not participating in the sweepstakes. It said it would take 5 days just to have it approved. They're going to have to make massive payouts today for no business help.

In the meantime, I'm pitching the story; I already did it to WIRED and I'm working down a list of technology sites. The censorship of this song by the "meaningless word prediction" crowd in many other forums is also an interesting angle for these reporters.

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