At the time of posting, litigation, led by Comcast and its subsidiaries, was underway against all of the leading AI music generation firms. On October 30, 2025, one of the firms, Udio, "settled" with the plaintiffs, and the terms of the settlement resulted in the effective closure of their service. Suno, another firm, is facing the same claims and engaged in largely the same behavior, but is defending itself with a different argument - that the labels have unclean hands because they engaged in an anticompetitive scheme to suppress AI generation for their own benefit, and is using discovery to try to prove that argument. If they cannot find evidence of this alleged scheme, they may shortly "settle" as well.

This market will resolve to YES if, on Halloween 2026, it is not possible to generate music of the same quality for the same or lower price as it was on October 30, 2025 before Udio closed, download it in a lossless format, and possess full ownership and distribution rights. The "price" might be a subscription fee, or per-track. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

To reiterate, any service that does not confer possession and ownership to the artist without limitation has no effect on the outcome of this market, since all major services at the time of market creation conferred ownership.

If AI music generation is simply forced underground by the labels' lawsuits, as downloading music was 25 years ago, and one can download open source "illegal weights" that perform better than today's models, the answer is NO. The answer is also NO if the weights from the shut down firms leak and a person with moderate technical skill can buy graphics cards and set up those models.

Only the cost and quality, not the generation time, is relevant.