the correct % was always 100

@ismellpillows I present you my market for next year:

GG WP to the T1 believers for stealing all my mana from the group stage, what a series

@RedzoneITG I never doubted them!

Never been so happy to lose mana

@Fedor I think I’m at -10k eventually, all things considered. Was fun anyway 😎

Form is temporary, class is permanent!
Faker is the Goat

This might be all over before the Penn State Ohio State game, and I won't need to pause at all.

This has the makings of a complete 3-0 blowout at this point.

@SteveSokolowski It did not! Woow hyped

@Fedor red side victory will be the ultimate tst for t1 now lol

keria pyke game 5? pog

@Fedor I just finished watching the recording. This was much better than the football game, and it was actually decided on a single play in the 5th game of the final - and one which BLG was going to win the championship on too.

kinda hilarious that with a 1 game head start in a BO5 BLG still sit near 50/50 with T1. that's craaaazy

@NoahRich Betting sites are also about 60-55% for BLG, so it's not suuuper weird

What a pre-game show it was! I’m all hyped up now to lose half of my mana today:

(~20k invested in this market by this moment)

@McLovin Loved the cinema scenes of the players getting messages from their families, hyped.

for now, polymarket has this matchup at ~58/42%. we'll see if it shifts during the week

@Ziddletwix They also have Trump at 66, far above both the polls and any other market. I would give him 53.

I don't give much weight to Polymarket much because of the 5% fees, the restriction on US customers, and the requirement that cryptocurrencies be used. These things make it impossible to arbitrage away clear differences between sites and prevent people like me who don't trust cryptocurrencies from betting there.

@SteveSokolowski Poly's odds ~roughly match every betting site I've seen for the finals. e.g.

• Bovada: T1 -135

• Draftkings: T1 -150

• Pinnacle: T1: -125

or etc (available to US, international, etc), take your pick. I'm not aware of any real money site accepting bets on BLG anywhere near ~30% (it's all ~57/43%-ish). If there is one, LMK! I only cited Poly as a shorthand because it tends to be most familiar for Manifold folks.

because of the 5% fees

I'm not sure what this is referring to? Polymarket does not charge fees for trades, deposits, or withdrawals. There's absolutely meaningful friction from using crypto (and some tiny fees hidden there), but there are plenty of bettors who don't mind that. (And thus in sports it's fairly rare for any moderate liquidity market on poly to diverge from the major sportsbooks for too long. Obvs it can sometimes happen, e.g. there could be a Fredi-sized-whale distorting things like in the election and many sportsbooks sufficiently limit action that there's no meaningful arbitrage, but this case where Poly & the major sportsbooks ~basically align is the norm).

Re: fees, I recall this same question came up before, and @jack wrote up a pretty clear summary here.

@Ziddletwix you've convinced me to start gambling

@ismellpillows (not investing advice!!!)

@Ziddletwix jk. but 57/43 is ~coinflip and great odds to me so i'll take a bet.

@Ziddletwix As a person not in the US, I got my money on polymarket at like a 0.5% fee (for coinbase), but have had 0 fees on polymarket.
But I am worried about it using USDC, see e.g. https://manifold.markets/Fedor/will-usdc-depeg-before-christmas-20

@Ziddletwix I think polymarket is reasonable and Manifold is just a bit too hyped about T1, but I am already like 6k mana against T1. Thankfully I'm hedged with happiness for faker if he wins.

@Fedor same. ridiculous to me to think that T1 are 66% to win comoared to BLG. But i still think theyre better and hope they win. Blg is a value bet here so i'll take it imo

@NoahRich And T1 got absolutely slapped in game 1, on blue side. Sadness

@Fedor I think it's worth acknowledging that T1 essentially decided they did not want to play that one out and let it end faster. obviously odds need to shift now that BLG has one game but I think people perhaps overstate how large of victories/defeats there were bevause teams often check out of games.

in other words, t1 lost but the end scoreline indicates a greater degree of dominance than there really was imo

@NoahRich Hmm maybe, I mean at near the closing out they were doomed, but outside of the gnar play top they didn't have many chances in the 1st game. Wondering what would the correct amount be to update from game 1 have been.