Sorry, as I said below, I'm just not seeing why people are all-in on T1. They got beaten when it counted not once but by pretty much all of the top teams listed here, and barely qualified for the tournament. I particularly don't see the case that they are better than HLE when HLE defeated them. DRX got hot at the last minute like HLE and T1 is going the other way. I put all I can afford into NO.

A new market has been added:

/SteveSokolowski/what-will-happen-during-the-league

One new option will be added to the market every day, to keep things interested and people engaged. You can make suggestions here (but not add directly.) The goal is to select options that are likely to remain open for most of the tournament.

@SteveSokolowski Love the market <3

The odds in this market to me seem to be off (at the time of posting).

It should be extraordinarily rare for the true odds of any team in any tournament to actually be 1 in 400; certainly not multiple teams in the same tournament. Consider what that means - it suggests that the tournament could be played 400 consecutive times and every single time there would not be an upset.

That is a lot of times, particularly for a game when a simple lapse of memory can throw a match.

@SteveSokolowski I think those odds are reasonable, maybe even high. It’s not there there won’t be a single upset, a team must win several best of 5 matches against different teams to win the tournament (plus qualify for the bracket stage in the first place). Also the skill ceiling in League is very high, the best pro teams from major regions have been swept in record times at international events. Gaining any advantage in League makes it easier to get bigger advantages. There are also 5 players, not 1, reducing variability. It’s like Japan winning Olympic basketball gold, but harder. (Also, does 1 in 400 odds == 0 wins in 400 consecutive plays?)

@ismellpillows Yes, as far as I understand it; although perhaps someone with a doctorate in statistics will correct us. The odds would indicate that if we could rewind time and humans have free will, a win would occur in one of every 400 trials.

It would also mean that if somehow time were "sequential" among all these universes, God would, on average, wait 276 times until the first win, which is counterintuitive but supported by math. The win would not be most likely to occur at the halfway point.

@ismellpillows It seems that you can arbitrage this market:

• /iansaintlawrence/will-league-of-legends-team-t1-who

I need to save my mana to add all the other teams to this market, so I can't make bets for a while.

@SteveSokolowski I did trade on it

@ismellpillows But "other" is at 16% here, so that is quite a contradiction.

@SteveSokolowski I’d like someone to arb it so I’ll make a quick buck

@ismellpillows I bet t1 down, they lost to hle this week, might not make it to worlds, so I'm thinking less than 16%

@Fedor This would not surprise me at all; in fact, I think it's expected.

This is a curse that occurs in all sports. In the NFL, teams that win the Super Bowl usually don't even make the playoffs the next year. Look at how DRX didn't do it last year.

I don't know why this is, but it clearly happens more often than what would be expected, even when teams have the same players as the year before, and the deterioration is much more than chance alone.

@SteveSokolowski I made this mini market

@ismellpillows I do think they'll qualify, they seem like the 3rd team in the LCK at the moment, can beat DRX, but not HLE or GEN.g.
I do think current odds are waaay to skewed to the top teams, like 3% for HLE to 37% for Gen.G seems far too optimistic with how teams sometimes don't show up, or show up very well at Worlds vs Playoffs and this happens often.

@Fedor Yes, HLE beat both T1 and Gen.G, and people are saying that they are 15 times less likely to win again against the same team they just destroyed in the 5th game of the final? That game wasn't even close, by the way.

The odds are absurd; I'm just out of mana to bet on anything until more people start bidding on my markets. I earned 400M through bids last night, so I hope to start normalizing the odds here once I add all the other options.