Resolves to Yes only according to the shooters online history or letters he left. If none of those, what his partner or family says about his political leaning. In the unlikely event that he is politically neutral, then only the most recent message counts.
Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Liberal means the left side of the political divide.
Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will determine whether the shooter is Liberal based on the popular/news media interpretation of the shooter's communications (e.g., online posts, letters).
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@SteveBright I do. First of all, there's the confusion about the wording of the market; you meant left-wing, not liberal.
Secondly: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/no-evidence-charlie-kirk-shooting-left-wing-groups-rcna232513 No one knows why he did it yet
@dgga He clearly specified from the start that he meant left of center, and there is no doubt that Robinson is left of center.
@dgga Yes, I meant left wing politically. You can get the drift in my description. Your link leaves it up in the air. We can all see he likes Trans and fuzzies. You can list the groups he was in online. I'll let it go until the media agrees? What if the media is so biased the 2 sides never agree?
@ShawnReynolds he isnt necessarily left of center, he is almost certainly left of republicans and possibly left of democrats. Democrats are right of centre, hence the issue with this resolution. If he is left of democrats, he is not liberal.
@ZackKenyon by definition, ever violently killing anyone, would be illiberal. Not very useful to stickle to such standards considering liberals have been piling up corpses at rates rivaling any other ideology
@JoeuyLZ Bah, no one is worse at defining ideologies than a dictionary, and no dictionary is worse than M-W. Here, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liberalism/
I prefer the Rawlsian interpretation, personally. This is more or less the idea that, between two societies, the one which you would choose to be born into, (provided that you were born into it at random) is the more "liberal".
Liberalism, in the broad, traditional sense, is politically moderate. It supports the rule of law, free speech, and change through democracy, not violent vigilantism. This is still true in the more narrow, modern American definition synonymous with “center-left”.
But in no way can we call Marxism, radical socialism, anarchism, or other fringe-left ideologies “liberal”. They are fundamentally at odds with the left-wing establishment in the US.
@KarlK We can all feel intuitively when someone speaks whether they are Liberal or Conservative. The news media will always spin it, one way or another. Hopefully they are honest. Almost nobody is in the middle. In this rare case, the most recent message they left behind counts.
@SteveBright This sounds like a statement that this market will not be resolved according to any sort of explicable principle.
@KarlK I will do my best to be fair and accurate. I will listen to your input. Most likely it will be obvious, if not then only the most recent message counts. We can decide together.
@SteveBright there are two very different common meanings of liberal: 1. Generally in favor of liberties like those in the bill of rights 2. The left side of the political divide.
Please specify which you mean.
@SteveBright Iiberals are quite right wing and not likely to want to kill Charlie Kirk. This person if he was politically motivated on the left would not be a liberal, they may be a general leftist, a socialist, a communist, etc, but almost certainly not a liberal. How do you reconcile this?
@Magnify using the word liberal to mean everything left of center.Is a perfectly common use of the word.Words are defined by how they're used.
@dgga words change meaning over time. The correct meaning of a word is whatever meaning you think the person listening to you is going to give that word.
@Chumchulum The second you tell someone the true definition of they aren’t incredibly stupid they believe you. Thus, the definition has not changed for the purposes of political differentiation.
@digory well that is not at all true, either.
Though, if we were to grant all that, the expected meaning of 'liberal' on manifold markets of all places, would absolutely not be 'left leaning'
Now, the rules give ultimate authority over definitions like this to the author of the market, so I'm expecting to lose the mana I have in this market on a technicality, but strictly that. No matter how much you try to butcher the English language, assigning the meaning 'left-leaning' to 'liberal' is just factually incorrect.
@dgga then we might as well go back to saying that decimate can only mean "remove a tenth" and dilapidated can only be said of stone buildings
@digory decimate still does mean remove a tenth, it’s just used in situations wheee that’s really bad, such as mass deaths, the effect of an explosion on a building, etc.
@digory the meaning differs by country also in this case. Also context even within the US. It even seems that "liberalism" in the US usually refers to classical liberalism whereas "liberal" (person) refers to someone who prefers some form of social welfare state and social freedom
@ac80 AFAIK most tankies indeed hate liberals. Conservatives though might see them both as liberals.
@Magnify in American political discourse a tankie is an ultra liberal and a nazi is an ultra conservative. As dumb as it seems liberal=left, conservative = right, no matter how moderate or extreme
@digory So it will resolve YES if tankie? Should I bet on liberal then? Cause I do think it will turn out he's a tankie.
@digory frankly this should now resolve NA. Your fundamental misunderstanding of the word liberal has tainted the betting philosophy of many people here including me.
@Magnify is not a misunderstanding, it's a use of the word that can be very easily observed in the wild, it's one of the definitions. Usage is meaning
@digory then you should have clarified you meant left wing and not liberal in the description when you posted. Words have specific definitions, you chose yours poorly.
@digory For a general use dictionary, yes. In scientific fields, definitions are operationalized according to how well they "cut reality at the joints", ie, concentrate probability density narrowly in reference to corresponding ontological facts. I feel like a rationalist prediction market should strive to use definitions in that way. It's prescriptivist, but it is not arbitrarily prescriptivist, and hopefully everyone in a prediction market would share those values. Otherwise you might as well rename this market " will the shooter be broadly called liberal", which is fundamentally a different question.