What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
232
1.6kṀ15k
2026
96%
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
90%
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
84%
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
83%
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
80%
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
78%
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
70%
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
69%
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
67%
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
66%
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
60%
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
58%
Another political assassination (either side)
56%
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
39%
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
36%
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
32%
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
31%
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
29%
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
29%
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
27%
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.

  • Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": There must be some proven link - inspiration, direct influence, etc - between the Kirk assassination and anything that would give this a YES resolution.

  • Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Any left-wing group is legally designated as a 'terrorist organization'": A state or local designation doesn't count for this - it has to be federal (even if it's unconstitutional or otherwise goes through the improper channels, such as an executive order).

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bought Ṁ25 YES

two events of this nature have been foiled by authorities’ intervention

#1: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/abilene-texas-pride-charlie-kirk-threat-b2833906.html

#2: https://people.com/charlie-kirk-martyr-allegedly-threatens-shoot-up-gay-bar-11813937

either would have resolved YES if successful, right?

If either of these had happened and this evidence came to light i'd have resolved this yes

@Dulaman Do we think this resolves YES? The latest episode doesn't seem to directly reference the assassination, but it DOES directly reference the post-assassination FCC/Kimmel fallout

@Marnix tricky

@Marnix I think it's too weak for a YES

bought Ṁ10 YES

@MachiNi Bit of a dilemma here: that's a senate resolution. Those aren't laws, don't go to the other house, and don't get signed by the president

sold Ṁ6 YES

@Marnix I see.

@Marnix what about this one? Are you gonna resolve it as yes? Jimmy came back already

@MindBenderMads in hindsight i probably should've made the resolution date a couple of months instead of a year

@Marnix this one’s easy, it resolves YES because it did end at least once

then, a separate “Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated” and “Jimmy Kimmel stays off the air until market close” question could trade as usual

@LiamRutherford I think we can resolve this. It actually went DOWN close to 3 points lol

@LiamRutherford man how tf has it already been two weeks? it simultaneously feels like it's only been a few days and like it's been a month

@BenM can we resolve this after this right wing activist canceled his thing?

https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/charlie-kirk-hbcu-threats-ben-shapiro

@MindBenderMads this is about cancellation by school admin; it looks like that article (as far as I can tell before the paywall) is about self cancellation?

@MindBenderMads https://archive.is/dpO6R I think @jcb is right. This appears to be 1 self cancellation and one by the Reagan Library, not a college.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@jcb it weird, I found the article on google, but it’s not asking for money there:

@MindBenderMads ah, some sites don't show the paywall if you came from a search result, but do if you arrived from a link elsewhere 🙄

@jcb

So we have right wing activists, university campus but we don’t have an admin?? Or what might seem to be the issue

@MindBenderMads I don't think the Reagan Library is a University Campus

@BenM alright then, will do my research on this later.

@GuyCohen This seems too crazy to actually happen.

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