What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?

500Ṁ787

2026

70%

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

67%

Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

66%

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

63%

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

55%

National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

55%

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

54%

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

50%

Another political assassination (either side)

37%

NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

34%

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

28%

Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

28%

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

25%

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

20%

Information reward money paid

15%

Kash Patel fired

13%

Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

12%

Any Democratic politician is arrested

12%

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

10%

Any news organization is shut down

America becomes a one-party GOP state.

Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event!

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments": the requirement that deportations be forcible is removed; any deportation qualifies.

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law": only a federal (national) bill qualifies; state bills do not.

Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": the later assassination must be provably inspired or influenced by the Charlie Kirk assassination, with such proof available by the market close date (2026-09-11).

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7 Comments

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@Marnix what does "forcibly" mean? Under what circumstances would a deportation not be forcible for the purposes of this market?

@BenM good point! revised to just "deported"

@Marnix only national bill or any state?

@BenM revised to "federal"

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 44% order

@Marnix this will eventually happen, and the assassin will be in some probably important way influenced by this and the conversation around it. What's the bar for "as a result of"