Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.
Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": There must be some proven link - inspiration, direct influence, etc - between the Kirk assassination and anything that would give this a YES resolution.
Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Any left-wing group is legally designated as a 'terrorist organization'": A state or local designation doesn't count for this - it has to be federal (even if it's unconstitutional or otherwise goes through the improper channels, such as an executive order).
1,000People are also trading
@Chumchulum do we have a concise list of acceptable generals? i don't think this happened but I can't really be sure
@brianwang As of late October 2025, about a month after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet told Fox News that more than 200,000 people had signed up to be part of TPUSA Faith. At the same time, the church network had roughly doubled from about 4,000 to 8,000 churches.
Later organization figures focus on the church side:
A March 2026 Christian Post report quoted TPUSA Faith senior leader Lucas Miles saying the church network had grown from roughly 3,200 congregations to nearly 10,000.
A September 2026 TPUSA one-year summary (reported by outlets including The Center Square, and matching a TPUSA document circulated then) said more than 12,000 churches and pastors had joined the TPUSA Faith network. Around the same time, fundraising materials cited about 11,000 church partnerships.
12000 churches should have 300k-500k members in the faith initiatives
@Marnix This market should resolve YES. On Sept. 25, the White House issued NSPM-7, explicitly citing Charlie Kirk’s assassination and directing FBI-led JTTFs to investigate “institutional and individual funders.”
Primary source:
Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence
additional source:
"government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing" - resolves yes (https://www.kpbs.org/news/national/2026/06/23/some-who-lost-jobs-over-charlie-kirk-posts-get-big-payouts-for-first-amendment-retaliation)
@perfperfperf Also if a settlement doesn't count for this here is an example of reinstatement : Just a moment...
@deletedaccount001 This should also resolve yes: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2500p3qjyo
@EmilyConn This episode aired before the assassination and does not seem to refer to it, just to Kirk
@EmilyConn I might be missing something obvious, but I believe only the market creator, @Marnix can resolve it.
@MindBenderMads this whole market was made to be open until next year because my goofy ass expected this to be a big issue for longer lmfao
@Marnix ok, respectable choice, but will this market resolve as yes or as no? i don’t understand why this market is so low
@MindBenderMads if Kimmel gets taken back off the air by market end and there's sufficient suspicion that it's somehow still tied to the Kirk backlash this resolves yes; else no
@Mrdudeguy Evan made this market:
You might notice it's not a regular yes/no market as it's supposed to be. That's because Evan was making unlinked binary markets to milk trader bonuses for some time, including some big name ones. It got noticed by the mods on this market, which earned Evan a 1 week suspension.
Because of that 1 week suspension, Evan proceeded to have the biggest crashout I've seen in a while, going full scorched earth and using a bug to get himself about a billion mana, inverting a number of markets, sending huge amounts of mana to random people, and opening huge positions on markets, which required a full system rollback. I can only assume that week-long suspension got upped a bit.
two events of this nature have been foiled by authorities’ intervention
#2: https://people.com/charlie-kirk-martyr-allegedly-threatens-shoot-up-gay-bar-11813937
either would have resolved YES if successful, right?
@Dulaman Do we think this resolves YES? The latest episode doesn't seem to directly reference the assassination, but it DOES directly reference the post-assassination FCC/Kimmel fallout