How long will my relationship with my current boyfriend last?

Premium

Ṁ26k

resolved Jan 18

100%20%

[9 to 12) Months

1.0%

[0 to 3) Months

1.5%

[3 to 6) Months

[6 to 9) Months

18%

[12 to 15) Months

10%

[15 to 18) Months

[18 to 21) Months

[21 to 24) Months

29%

>= 24 Months

Market for the duration of my relationship with my current boyfriend Jared Frank (https://www.instagram.com/jared.frank?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==), which began on March 10th, 2024. Neither Jared nor I will be betting in this market.

Only one answer will resolve YES, and it will be the one which corresponds to either the date which one of us breaks up with the other or the day after our 2 year anniversary. Square brackets indicate an inclusive date, and parentheses indicate an exclusive date.

The exact dates by month are below, organized as Month, Date:

3, 06/10/24

6, 09/10/24

9, 12/10/24

12, 03/10/25

15, 06/10/25

18, 09/10/25

21, 12/10/25

24, 03/10/26

Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - Resolution Timeframe: 9-12 months from today. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ175
3		Ṁ175
4		Ṁ168
5		Ṁ83

25 Comments

26 Holders

98 Trades

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Resolved 9-12 months today.

@SteveAcomb 😞

@SteveAcomb sorry to hear, I hope it was amicable 🙏

@TheAllMemeingEye Thanks bros, it was okay. We loved eachother but both had intractable differences in where/how we wanted to live. He’s free to stay with his loved ones in the midwest, and I’m free to travel wherever my opportunities will be greatest now.

@SteveAcomb cool, glad to hear you're doing ok 👍

reposted

If anyone wants my 6-9 months No shares at 2% and hold them to maturity (15 months hopefully 🤞), limit order is up!

Met my folks. They like him.

Meeting both sides of his extended family soon.

@SteveAcomb

I got sick at my grandparents folks I couldn’t go 😭

Still going strong. Anything <9months is guaranteed to resolve No now. Free mana.

@SteveAcomb

congrats @yetforever for claiming this quarter’s free mana

Still together. I’m visiting his family for Thanksgiving, and he’s meeting my family before christmas.

@SteveAcomb

turkey trot

boughtṀ1,000 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye

looks like you’re the one to claim the guaranteed profit this time

Update: we’ve passed the 6 months threshold. I’m writing this from his apartment, and we have plans for Thanksgiving.

@SteveAcomb

I also just added another 2500 in liquidity subsidies.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@SteveAcomb 3 to 6 months is 100% guaranteed to resolve no now right?

@TheAllMemeingEye correct.

More context to help prediction accuracy since I just boosted this market up to Plus:

We’re both electrical/computer engineers writing software for a living.

We’re both out & openly gay.

I’ve met his family & got along with them.

We live in different states but alternate driving to spend almost every weekend with eachother.

Additionally:

I have been the one to dump every single one of my previous partners.

@SteveAcomb how long roughly did your previous relationships last?

@TheAllMemeingEye

Longest was 13 months and was immediately prior to this one. The others averaged roughly 3 months.

sold Ṁ3 YES

@SteveAcomb thanks 👍

bought Ṁ100 YES

I believe in you two!

Thanks! ☺️

I should add that if we break up I promise to personally find ways to reimburse anyone who trades between the instant we do so and the time the market resolves. All incentives WILL be such that correct predictions are rewarded.

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