Having been convicted of interfering with the 2016 election, how much jail time will Trump be sentenced to?
18
1.8kṀ3539resolved Dec 10
ResolvedN/A
84%
None
4%
Less than 1 year
2%
1-2 years
2%
2-3 years
2%
3-4 years
1.0%
4+ years
5%
Trump will be declared not guilty of election interference.
1-2 years means 365 days plus no more than 364 days. Extrapolate for the other choices.
Choice 7 is for those who think he'll skate. IMHO the ice has cracked open beneath him, and he will get 30 months. I also think he'll be remanded into custody as a flight risk, but that's a different question.
Sentencing is July 11 at 10am EDT.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will Trump serve time?
How Long Will Trump Go To Jail?
Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
16% chance
How much time will Trump serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison time before 2026?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to time in prison/jail, house arrest, both, or neither?
How will Donald Trump's Georgia election interference trial end?
If Trump loses the election, will he be sentenced to house arrest or incarceration by the end of 2028?
41% chance
How will Trump serve time?