Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)?
30
1kṀ2205Dec 31
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Christian Szegedy and Francois Chollet have a bet about whether we'll have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026. This market will resolve to however they resolve their bet, or if not resolved, to the best of my ability to evaluate the criteria described in the tweet (https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688) myself.
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 6:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
Related questions
Related questions
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
65% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
81% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
34% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
45% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
75% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
57% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
61% chance
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
61% chance