Since the May 2022 election the Northern Ireland Assembly has failed to form an Executive. In the absence of an Executive the Secretary of state is required to call a new election within a certain timeframe.

Extensions were given but the current state of play is the following: "After the extended deadline of 19 January 2023 passed and following legislation being passed in Westminster, if no Executive is formed, an election will now be required by 13 April 2023" (Wikipedia)

Market will resolve yes if an election takes place by 13 April 2023.