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MANIFOLD
Will the Jetten cabinet collapse by the end of November 12, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ30
Nov 19
63%
chance

The Dutch minority cabinet of D66, VVD and CDA is under pressure after D66 and CDA made a tax deal with PRO and Volt that the VVD strongly opposes. VVD leader Yeşilgöz has called for a “fundamental reset” of the coalition.

Resolves YES if, before November 12, 2026, 23:59 CET:

  • the VVD, D66 or CDA officially leaves the coalition, OR

  • the cabinet (or the Prime Minister) offers its resignation to the King.

Resolves NO if none of the above happens. Threats, crisis talks or a “fundamental reset” without anyone leaving do not count.

Resolution is based on reporting by NOS or other major Dutch media.

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