Will Conjecture have dissolved by 2028?
Basic
7
Ṁ1192028
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if the for-profit AI alignment org Conjecture has gone bankrupt or otherwise dissolved by 2028.
Resolves no if Conjecture is still around.
Resolves N/A if Conjecture is purchased / does the "reverse OpenAI" and turns itself into a non-profit / etc
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world?
64% chance
Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?
40% chance
Will Conjecture's CoEm paradigm generate more than $1 Million USD in revenue before 2026?
34% chance
Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
26% chance
Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026?
36% chance
Will the Reimann Hypotheses be Resolved by the year 2035
35% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?
42% chance
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
57% chance
Will Perplexity be bought out by the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will a Hylion executive be convicted of fraud before 2030?
33% chance