Will Conjecture have dissolved by 2028?
9
Ṁ170Ṁ1652028
77%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if the for-profit AI alignment org Conjecture has gone bankrupt or otherwise dissolved by 2028.
Resolves no if Conjecture is still around.
Resolves N/A if Conjecture is purchased / does the "reverse OpenAI" and turns itself into a non-profit / etc
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?
55% chance
By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world?
75% chance
Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
99% chance
Status of the Wentworth-Lorell conjecture in 2026
Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
18% chance
Will Defunctland be Defunct by EOY 2029?
58% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2030?
12% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?
44% chance
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
57% chance
Will "Will 'jailbreaks' in LLMs be solved in principle by the end of 2024" resolve YES AND turn out wrong in 2026?
5% chance