Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

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2029

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The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind.

AlphaFold (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. It was iterated upon and a second version (AlphaFold 2, AF2) was released to the public in 2021. AF and AF2 placed first in the overall rankings of CASP13 and CASP14 respectively. It is widely regarded as a transformational leap the structural biology space [1].

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

This question will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2029, the official website of the Nobel Prizes (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-n…) lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold.

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predicts YES

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/sep/21/team-behind-ai-program-alphafold-win-lasker-science-prize

Team behind AI program AlphaFold win Lasker science prize

Award for work on shapes of proteins raises prospect of AI research earning a Nobel for first time. In the past 20 years, 32 Lasker winners have received a Nobel.

Team behind AI program AlphaFold win Lasker science prize

Award for work on shapes of proteins raises prospect of AI research earning a Nobel for first time

predicts NO

Does this also resolve YES if any of the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold wins a Nobel Prize before 2030 for a different work than AlphaFold? (Say, a different deep learning model. Or they write a book and win the Nobel Price for Literature.)

predicts YES

@howtodowtle "lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold."

predicts YES

@howtodowtle So no, the Nobel Prize must won on the merit of that person's contribution to an iteration of AlphaFold.

predicts NO

@StephanHeijl Thanks, that bold part is pretty clear, no idea how I missed that. 🤦‍♂️

predicts YES

@howtodowtle No worries, it's good to check beforehand 👍