Will Afghanistan restore general internet connectivity before January 1, 2026?
4
1kṀ290
Jan 1
45%
chance

As of September 30, 2025, Afghanistan is experiencing a complete nationwide internet blackout (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxqdy5nrlqo) imposed by the Taliban administration. The shutdown began with provincial restrictions in mid-September 2025, initially targeting northern provinces, before expanding nationwide. Taliban officials cite preventing "vice" and "immoral activities" as justification for the ban, and state that the ban will remain in effect "until further notice".

The BBC reports that a committee has been established in Kabul that will decide whether to continue the ban or restore the connectivity with some form of censorship.

The question resolves YES if:

  • Netblocks (https://netblocks.org/) reports before January 1, 2026 that connectivity has been restored to at least 50% level for at least two days.

  • If Netblocks is out of business by that time, resolve YES if major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, DW, BBC) report before December 30, 2025 that internet connectivity has been restored across Afghanistan, whether by fibre-optic cables, cellular networks, etc., and the restoration remains active for at least two days without another shutdown announcement

  • The connectivity is restored with PRC/Iran-like censorship

  • The connectivity is somehow restored against the Taliban's orders (e.g. satellite connectivity).

The question resolves NO if:

  • Only a local "intranet" is implemented (similar to DPRK)

  • The connectivity is restored only for select groups of people (Taliban members, foreign diplomats, etc.).

  • No restoration occurs by December 31, 2025

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