Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Rhetoric or threats alone do not count
Any actual legislation that would make it harder for trans people to purchase firearms will resolve YES, regardless of whether it has a real effect or holds up in court
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive Orders (EOs) count as an attempt by the administration and would resolve YES
ATF form changes (e.g. changes to form 4473) are less clear-cut; resolution may depend on whether there is a de facto change in access and/or whether the administration supports prosecutions or purchase denials based on trans status
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - ATF actions (e.g. changes to form 4473) may count if there is collaboration with or broader support from the Trump administration
De facto access change or administration support for prosecutions/purchase denials will be considered in ambiguous ATF cases
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What counts as an attempt?
@ChurlishGambit rhetoric or threats don't count, any actual legislation which would make it harder to purchase firearms will resolve YES (regardless of if it has a real effect or holds up in court)
@SpeaksForTrees Are you counting EOs as legislation? Changes to agency forms or processes? If the federal background check suddenly includes asking whether you're trans, & they deny people on that basis, shouldn't that count? Despite not involving any legislation?
@ChurlishGambit Yes those would count, EO would absolutely be an attempt by the administration. If the ATF quietly changes form 4473 in a way that might restrict firearm access for trans or GNC people, resolution might become a bit less clear cut (in that case it might be best to see if there is any de facto access change and/or if the administration supports persecutions or purchase denials)
@SpeaksForTrees Word, thank you!
For the 4473 hypothetical, wouldn't it still be an attempt, even if there's no de facto access change? Because if an actual change is required, then it's more of a "success" than an "attempt."
@ChurlishGambit and thank you for the clarifying questions!!
Right, the subjective part there is "the Trump administration" part of the question since ATF is separate from the executive branch, but not far removed so really any collaboration or broader federal action should resolve YES in that case.