Will cocoa prices be lower one year from now?
8
32
แน€190
2025
48%
chance

Due to poor growing conditions in West Africa cocoa prices have soared in the past few months. The global supply of cocoa is expected to be even lower this year but high prices have dampened demand.

I will base my resolution on the historical data table from YahooFinance for the Cocoa Mar 25 futures. The question resolves to yes if during January 2025 there will be no single day for which the Open, Close, High, and Low prices will all be above 4500$ (per ton).

The historical data table for the Cocoa Mar 24 futures shows the prices for Jan 22, 2024, to be all above 4500$, for the first time since the opening of the contract.

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