[Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?
[Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?
117
1.2kṀ13k
2026
16%
chance

Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate as reported by Google Finance is less than 1.0000.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Economics
Europe
Metaculus
Dollarization
Currency
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1mo

At the moment 1$ is 0,9€. So the Euro is worth more than 1 $.

I believe this will not change in the near future. Tariffs will not change that.

bought Ṁ50 NO1mo

What is the thesis for this happening? Surprised it is at > 10%

1mo

@DevonFritz in theory, higher tariffs should raise the value of the dollar, but that would only be if it was done more intelligently (ie. no tariffs on input products, well though out rates etc.)

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