Will Planecrash conclude by the end of 2023?
65
537
1.2K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/tigrennatenn/will-the-mad-investor-chaos-thread, except for the date.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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Trying to get more specific and ask about epilogues exactly: /EvanDaniel/planecrash-will-planecrash-have-an

predicted NO

@JiSK In that case the market will remain open. If the continuity is later updated, the market resolves NO; if the continuity is later declared complete with no further content, the market resolves YES.

That is: if/when an official declaration of doneness occurs, I will consider Planecrash to have ended at the time of the last content update, not counting the declaration of doneness to constitute a content update in itself (unless the declaration comes in a form that also constitutes content, e.g. Nethys saying goodbye to the Orthogonal Things).

@SonataGreen the linked market says hiatus is sufficient:

Feb 13, 11:45pm: "On indefinite hiatus" / "not intended to be completed or worked on further" will also make this resolve to YES

@MartinRandall Fair enough. If I don't learn that the authors are planning/ expecting to continue, I'll resolve YES when the question expires on New Year's.

@SonataGreen correction: resolve YES

predicted YES

I consider Planecrash to already be complete for the reasons given in https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-planecrash-be-complete-before#40zKJIu9f6Xx3v9v16Lb

@MichaelBlume You make a reasonable argument, but I'm holding off at least until the last thread is marked complete, as that seems like the most natural bright-line Schelling point.

predicted NO

@SonataGreen We might also posit a distinction between planecrash being complete (which it is) and it concluding (which it evidently hasn't yet).

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I thought it would've ended in mid-2022. Given that it's still going and the pace is pretty intermittent, anything over 90% feels high.

@ShakedKoplewitz The resolution criteria for "is it over" includes "it's abandoned with no plans to continue." I assume some people think the story will just get left for dead.

predicted NO

@tigrennatenn I think a long tail where it gets intermittent updates once a month or two (basically just going on like it is now) is over 10% likely.