Will Planecrash conclude by the end of 2023?

Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/tigrennatenn/will-the-mad-investor-chaos-thread, except for the date.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ50 of NO

I thought it would've ended in mid-2022. Given that it's still going and the pace is pretty intermittent, anything over 90% feels high.

tigrennatenn avatar

@ShakedKoplewitz The resolution criteria for "is it over" includes "it's abandoned with no plans to continue." I assume some people think the story will just get left for dead.

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitzis predicting NO at 90%

@tigrennatenn I think a long tail where it gets intermittent updates once a month or two (basically just going on like it is now) is over 10% likely.