Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/tigrennatenn/will-the-mad-investor-chaos-thread, except for the date.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
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Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ50 of NO
I thought it would've ended in mid-2022. Given that it's still going and the pace is pretty intermittent, anything over 90% feels high.
tigrennatenn
@ShakedKoplewitz The resolution criteria for "is it over" includes "it's abandoned with no plans to continue." I assume some people think the story will just get left for dead.
Shaked Koplewitzis predicting NO at 90%
@tigrennatenn I think a long tail where it gets intermittent updates once a month or two (basically just going on like it is now) is over 10% likely.
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YES payouts
Ṁ4,870
Ṁ2,101
Ṁ1,111
Ṁ154
Ṁ128
Ṁ112
Ṁ87
Ṁ22
Ṁ12
Ṁ11
NO payouts
Ṁ1,356
Ṁ980
Ṁ733
Ṁ670
Ṁ506
Ṁ423
Ṁ413
Ṁ370
Ṁ242
Ṁ209
Ṁ180
Ṁ178
Ṁ156
Ṁ145
Ṁ76
Ṁ32
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