Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
Dec 31

The following excerpt is taken from the information, and I wonder if this will come true in 2024:

Interestingly, the same Bloomberg report said OpenAI is talking to Abu Dhabi firm G42about raising billions of dollars for an AI server chip venture. That would require the startup to either find new talent or make an acquisition to jump start the project. Needless to say, next year is sure to bring oodles more action in the AI chip world.

Resolution Criteria

  1. Funding, Venture Start, Acquisition: OpenAI directly invests in, creates, or acquires an AI chip entity in 2024.

  2. Verification & Timeline: Must be publicly confirmed through credible sources in 2024; speculative, indirect, or unconfirmed actions excluded.

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OpenAI would like to just have a working AI Chip company. There are no real competitors to NVIDIA currently on the market OpenAI could just buy (at least none OpenAI would have enough monetary resources to buy) and OpenAI does not have the capacity/the human resources/the know how to start a new hardware company.

bought Ṁ70 NO

Apparently, Groq only got 370 million in funding since their founding which leads me to believe that starting a new AI chip company doesn’t require as much capital as I thought.

bought Ṁ210 YES from 82% to 85%

Will this happen? "Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI"

still trying

@Soli To clarify: We need verification (4) in 2024 (5) for (1-3) to count? So some news about an investment in October but verification in January would not resolve Yes?

predicts YES

@Primer good question - did not think deeply about it but i guess this is the most straightforward way to read the resolution criteria although it feels weird

predicts YES

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Soli I'm not sure how you're distinguishing "semiconductor" from "chips" in that sentence, but for what it's worth, I'm betting NO on the basis that I think the market overestimates the probability of something like what that news article describes, where OpenAI raises the billions it would take to create a new significant player in semiconductors or to acquire an existing one. State-of-the-art semiconductors are extremely hard to produce well and have little need for a "project" like this to continue scaling up as much as they can. Many have tried, but if anyone can do it, it's probably OpenAI, the U.S., or China during the current hype cycle, so I think this is an important and interesting market.

predicts YES

@Jacy I have little knowledge here honestly but I thought maybe AI chips are made from special semiconductors but also have other parts that go into them. To avoid confusion I thought it would be best to state that either would suffice to conclude the market as yes.

Edit: I think we can ignore my comment. AI chips are specialized semiconductors according to the brief research I did now.

repostedbought Ṁ50 of YES

I would be surprised if this doesn’t happen in 2024 - I think it makes sense for them on so many levels but maybe I am underestimating the challenge of building chips that can seriously compete with nvidia

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Soli which companies would it possibly fund/acquire if it did? I can't think of any promising AI chip startup/labs

edit: Most funded artificial intelligence (AI) chip startup companies worldwide 2021 based on Statista

Nothing reported for 2022 or 2023

predicts YES

@trixwit good question but i have little knowledge of the industry to give an educated answer here

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