Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
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What if there's dispute over government legitimacy? Does it count as an arrest if someone claiming to be a representative of a formal government claims to have arrested him, or is the standard stricter than this?

predicts NO

why buy this? @33cb

predicts YES

@jacksonpolack in movies main characters get arrested pretty often.

@jacksonpolack Generally, Elon is known to play fast and loose with the law. His “$420 a share” tweet almost got him on the hook for millions, he allegedly violated fire safety regulations in Twitter’s headquarters, and his Tesla workplaces often violate the civil rights act. It’s true that the rich often avoid punishment, but Elon “messes around” more than the average rich person, so he may very well “find out” what a jail cell is like.

Normally, during a routine traffic stop in the US, the person stopped is being detained for the duration of the stop. This does not require a traffic ticket to be written.

Is this market intended to include that scenario?

@EvanDaniel It wasn't intended to include that scenario. Should this be reworded to "arrested"?

@cloudprism I think that depends on what your goal is! This isn't usually the sort of market I pay that much attention to, so don't worry about my opinion.

Mostly I think it should be clear to the participants what's included or not, and what the resolution criteria will be. And this one looked messy.

If you wanted to include that you could do something like "... as reported by credible sources ...". Or you could change to "arrest" or other terms that tend to have clear public records. You could restrict it to imprisoned (does that include jail, or just prison?). There are lots of things that could work!