
Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026?
38
1kṀ88672027
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As reported by major news sources. If in doubt or unclear as of question close time, then as confirmed by government sources such as court records and arrest records. Question close time may be extended if unclear and records are not yet available.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025
9% chance
Will Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
95% chance
Elon Musk imprisoned, dead, disappeared, or on the run by January 1, 2026?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk be deported by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026
2% chance
Will Elon Musk be tried for treason before 2026?
2% chance
Will Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?
13% chance
Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term?
8% chance
Will Elon Musk or anyone representing the DOGE team be arrested before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in the state of Pennsylvania by the end of 2025?
29% chance
Sort by:
I'm not staying it's super likely, but it actually seems plausible after the Putin thing

@DavidFWatson Hmmm. I'm not at all convinced the Logan Act still gets enforced, though.
@DavidFWatson there might well be, this is definitely not a thing I'm an expert on. Are there better similar questions to ask?
People are also trading
Related questions
Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025
9% chance
Will Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
95% chance
Elon Musk imprisoned, dead, disappeared, or on the run by January 1, 2026?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk be deported by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026
2% chance
Will Elon Musk be tried for treason before 2026?
2% chance
Will Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?
13% chance
Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term?
8% chance
Will Elon Musk or anyone representing the DOGE team be arrested before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in the state of Pennsylvania by the end of 2025?
29% chance