Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?
Plus
22
Ṁ895Jun 2
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the recent discussions between Gary Marcus and @ScottAlexander, this market resolves as follows:
IF any AI image generating model (such as DALL-E, Imagen, Stable Diffusion, etc) scores 90% or more on the Winoground image composition test, this market resolves YES.
ELSE this market resolves NO.
Relevant Links:
Scott's post: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet
Gary's post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of
Winoground: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.03162v2.pdf
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
81% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
30% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
60% chance
Will any AI get a score of at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark before March 11, 2025?
23% chance
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
45% chance
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
53% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
58% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
25% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
29% chance