Will 500+ people die from heat waves in the US this year?
42
646
870
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves

Resolves YES if 500 or more people die in American heat waves this year.

Otherwise resolves NO.

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Resolves YES. See @RobertCousineau's comment below.

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Western_North_America_heat_wave

Resolves yes; Wikipedia lists 569 dead in just Phoenix from the heat wave this year.

@SneakySly

predicted YES

How is the percentage not higher? Maricopa county is widely reported to have had 425 with 199 still under investigation. Pima county has 64 and Pinal county had 42 just in July. That's easily over 500 in just 3 Arizona counties

https://www.azfamily.com/2023/08/08/migrant-heat-related-deaths-are-up-year-over-year-pinal-county/

bought Ṁ10 of YES

In 2004, 297 Americans died from excessive natural heat, the lowest number recorded in the last two decades. In 2018, 1,008 Americans died as a direct result of heat. But by 2021, the number of heat-related deaths increased to 1,600, a 59 percent increase from four years earlier and a 439 percent increase from 2004.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) actively tracks daily and weekly heat-related illnesses, and its provisional data shows that 1,714 people died in the United States in 2022 from "heat-related" causes.

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-die-from-extreme-heat-in-the-us/#:~:text=In%202004%2C%20297%20Americans%20died,a%20439%25%20increase%20from%202004.

And also the 2023 temperature is higher than the temperature in 2022.

it seems like there will be more people dying from heat waves.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

What is the source for resolution?

@Stan Wikipedia or someone linking an article

Since this market is at a fairly high percentage I created an additional market with a higher threshold.

bought Ṁ85 of YES

Dude, look at Texas. I’d be happy to NOT get internet points from human death but they’re ripping out their metaphorical airbags.

predicted YES

@JohnSmithb9be "ripping out their metaphorical airbags" what does this mean?

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING They’re limiting the number of mandatory heat and water breaks.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@JohnSmithb9be oh ... this affects construction workers from what i'm reading.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING Quite. The class of workers who are most at risk of heatstroke. Arguably other than farm workers.

predicted YES

@JohnSmithb9be add sign twirlers too.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

What is the source for resolution?

@JimAusman Ideally Wikipedia.

A major news headline would also be sufficient.