Colorado has disqualified Donald Trump from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. How many other states will follow suit?
Any disqualification will count, even if later overturned.
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Now that the Supreme Court has ruled that states do not have the power to bar candidates from the ballot, I realize that the bet has become ambiguous. Another state could still rule that he is disqualified(?), and it would be overturned on appeal citing the Supreme Court decision, but it would still count as a disqualification as I worded this bet?
@Snarflak That's unambiguously right, imo. It will still count. Don't think it will happen though, because it means pretty much defying the supreme court.
@Shump OK. Just want to make sure I'm resolving fairly even in weird corner cases. I'll wait until after the election to resolve.
@Snarflak It is basically certain not to happen, since that would mean a state court ruling in a way that explicitly contradicts the Supreme Court and which they know is going to be immediately overturned.
We're currently at 2, Colorado and Maine. Apparently Hawaii is looking into disqualifying Trump as well, but the Supreme Court is going to rule on disqualification soon, so whether it's 2 or 3 depends on whether SCOTUS rules before Hawaii decides to disqualify Trump. It's pretty unlikely to end up as 4 because that would require both Hawaii and some other state to disqualify him before the Supreme Court rules.
Once the Supreme Court has made its ruling, then the number will pretty much be set in stone. If, as is most likely, SCOTUS rules that states can't disqualify Trump from the ballot, then the number will just be however many states disqualified Trump before the ruling. On the other hand, if SCOTUS rules that Trump is in fact ineligible, then all 50 states will have to disqualify Trump from their ballots.