I still think Carmack's solo adventure in AGI is the most neglected potentially interesting venture in the space, at least by Manifold.

I sit here at my computer all the time, thinking up concepts, documenting them, making theories, testing them. That’s the work right now, as nobody really knows the full path all the way to where we want to go. But I think I’ve got as good a shot at it as anyone

Resolves to YES if, at any point before end of 2024, Keen Technologies / John Carmack releases either a paper or detailed post explaining what he's been working on, or an AI (via API, web, or open source). The spirit of this market is an actual release, not just an interview where he talks about things. Think the GPT4/Grok-1.5 announcements.

Otherwise, resolves NO.