Thanks to @NathanpmYoung we are currently dm'ing with one of the leads on X's Community Notes team who says they are a fan of Manifold!
This market resolves yes if:
1) X creates some sort of internal prediction markets mechanism. This could be as part of community notes or separate.
2) X creates some way in their UI for a link to a prediction market to be added to a tweet or community note. Such as a button that quickly added a prediction market.
3) Some other X partnership with Manifold to create something which goes live on X which incorporates prediction markets into their platform. Intentionally leaving this criteria a little open-ended as it's hard to predict exactly what that could look like right now.
I created a very similar market recently that only resolves YES if the prediction mechanism is native to X's interface and is not behind a feature specific paywall.
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-x-have-a-prediction-market-fun?r=QWt6enoxMjM
And a 2030 version of the same:
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-xtwitter-have-a-prediction-mar?r=QWt6enoxMjM
Worth noting that iiuc there sort of already is one - users who rank community notes effectively bet reputation that those notes will be considered helpful or unhelpful. Their problem is that few of these notes resolve in the long term.
But there already is a currency (reputation - you can find it in community notes).
@NathanpmYoung Yeah! I'm not counting that towards this market, this market is about further integration than that.
For that I made this market: /SirSalty/will-there-be-a-manifold-link-in-an