Thanks to @NathanpmYoung we are currently dm'ing with one of the leads on X's Community Notes team who says they are a fan of Manifold!

This market resolves yes if:
1) X creates some sort of internal prediction markets mechanism. This could be as part of community notes or separate.
2) X creates some way in their UI for a link to a prediction market to be added to a tweet or community note. Such as a button that quickly added a prediction market.

3) Some other X partnership with Manifold to create something which goes live on X which incorporates prediction markets into their platform. Intentionally leaving this criteria a little open-ended as it's hard to predict exactly what that could look like right now.