Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?
Basic
13
945
2034
28%
chance

To resolve yes:

  • Has to be for a continuous 18-month period (if I'm partway at close then I will extend it until the 18-month period/I quit).

  • Has to be 95% of the time (I abide by the diet for 520/547 days of the 18-month period. And on any days I do break it, it has to be for an extenuating circumstance or super special occasion and not just a "cheat day".)

  • Lab-created meat is fine.

If anyone can see any other loopholes/technicalities that could come up that I haven't thought of let me know.

Making this market because I currently eat everything (as long as I think it tastes good). I've always felt pretty strongly that I would stay this way. I think this is particularly re-enforced because I was brought up as an international kid and love travelling. And food is a significant part of the cultural experience I've come to love when interacting with various cultures.

Right now I'm leaning towards NO but with a lot of exposure to EA and people who are vegans I think there is some chance this could change.

For what it's worth, I do think I am likely (~80%) to consciously try and eat less meat and learn to cook more meals that don't involve animal-based products over the next few years.

Reasons I think this could become YES are:

  • Lab-grown meat (or just other tasty meat substitutes) becomes more accessible and widespread used in resturants.

  • I enter a long-term relationship with someone who has a certain diet (I still doubt I'd go full vegan, but I could see myself becoming a pescatarian, at least for 18 months trial period).

  • My moral compass shifts or my level of selfishness decreases. (Honestly, my moral compass probably wouldn't have to shift that much. I do think some animals suffer to an extent because of me, but food is such an integral part of my life and sadly I am a little bit selfish in this regard).

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what do you mean by “90% of the time”? do you mean “90% of the food I eat isn’t meat”? or do you mean “90% of the time that i spend eating, its not eating meat”? or even just “90% of my day is not spent eating meat”?

i agree that 100% strictness is unnnecessary, but “90% of the time” feels not specific enough

@saulmunn let's go with % of days during the 18-month period. And on reflection 90% is a bit low, so let's go with 95% instead (520 out of 547 days).

Additionally, these can't just be "cheat days". There has to be at least some decent reason I'm breaking my diet. Eg. Visting family and there are no options, travelling to a country that has very limited options (or has a once in a life time type of dish I want to try), I'm super sick and there is only food easily available that breaks my diet.

predicts NO

@saulmunn Also just realised u've already bet. If the adjustments I've made to the criteria affect your bet let me know and we can set up a direct limit order to cancel it.

predicts YES

@DavidChee nah i’ll convince you regardless 😤😤