Luigi Mangione manifesto prop bets (add answers)
56
6.8kṀ41k
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
YES
Whole Manifesto released in December
Resolved
YES
UnitedHealthcare mentioned by name (incl abbreviations)
Resolved
YES
Mentions “The Feds”
Resolved
YES
Mentions mafia or derivative (e.g. mob, mafioso)
Resolved
YES
Is under 300 words
Resolved
NO
No manifesto released
Resolved
NO
Trump mentioned by name or title
Resolved
NO
Mentions a denied insurance claim from himself or someone he knows
Resolved
NO
Manifesto published on substack by Mangione
Resolved
NO
The (Technological) Singularity is referenced
Resolved
NO
Specific mention of Brian Thompson and/or United CEO (incl first name only, last name only, or abbreviated title)

If no Manifesto (or snippets) is released by the end of March 2025 then all answers will resolve NO except "No manifesto released" which will resolve to YES.

Please be considerate when submitting answers. Please be as specific as possible when adding answers. Mods please feel free to edit the description to include peoples' comments with criteria for their submitted answers.

If portions of the Manifesto are released I will start proactively resolving answers which have their criteria met.

  • Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - When a manifesto is released, answers will be resolved YES immediately if criteria are met

    • Other answers will wait 48 hours before being resolved NO

    • If evidence of a second manifesto emerges during the 48-hour period, NO resolutions will be delayed until after the second manifesto is released

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - Assumption on Leaked Manifesto:

    • The leaked Manifesto is assumed to be complete based on current consensus.

    • If it is later found to be incomplete, answers will be unresolved and corrections made accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,726
2Ṁ1,438
3Ṁ628
4Ṁ460
5Ṁ303
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy