Manifold Plays RPS ○ Prop Bets
8
250Ṁ57k
resolved Aug 25
Resolved
NO
Tumbles profits overall (only looking at @Orangey bets, not creator costs/bonuses)
Resolved
NO
There is not a single tied round (both sides pick same option)
Resolved
YES
There are at least four tied rounds (both sides pick same option)
Resolved
NO
Tumbles picks rock at least five times
Resolved
NO
Tumbles never uses one or more of the moves (e.g. only rock and paper but never scissors)
Resolved
NO
Tumbles's moves form a repeating pattern with a motif of length 2 or less (e.g. RSRSRSR or PSPS or PPPPP)
Resolved
YES
Tumbles uses the same move twice in a row
Resolved
YES
Manifold will win at least one round
Resolved
YES
Rock Paper Scissors Mastermind is Tumbles debt holder (since before August)
Resolved
NO
There are at least six tied rounds (both sides pick same option)
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Manifold Plays RPS
Rock Paper Scissors
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opened a Ṁ10 NO at 30% order

Tumbles/Orangey doesn't count. They have to be holding (unforgiven) debt when the final decision market closes, and that debt had to have been acquired before August 2025.

You can see my current profit at this link looking at @Orangey profit on the leaderboard, though I think this method might get broken if these markets are unranked

https://manifold.markets/topic/manifold-plays-rps?tab=leaderboard

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