Which five organizations will have the highest public impact on Jan 1, 2025, if a market for impact exist?
10
59
Dec 1
4%
Manifold Markets
31%
GiveWell
0.2%
MIRI
30%
Against Malaria Foundation
5%
FTX Future Fund
24%
Open Philanthropy
0%
An organization not listed as an option by the time this market closes (April 5, 2022)
If https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c resolves to yes, which organizations will be the most valuable? This will resolve to the top 5 orgs in the impact market, proportional to their valuations Close date updated to 2024-12-01 1:00 am Apr 12, 7:40pm: #7 will not be selected as an answer
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is this adjusted for the $ they recieved (i.e. cost-effectiveness) or just total impact?

sold Ṁ7 of An organization not ...
Thanks, that makes sense. Sold my shares so if no one buys this option (now that you have announced/adjusted the date), you won't have to worry about this problem. :)
bought Ṁ1 of An organization not ...
The early close date was a mistake. For the sake of fairness, on April 4, 11:59pm I will make note of which organizations existed at the time, and then in 2025, if this answer would have been correct, I'll include it as one of the correct answers. Unsure of what proportion really makes sense, but I think it should be like this: say CEA, not listed at the time, is in the top 5 and would have gotten 17%. Instead, CEA and this answer gets 17, then you renormalize everything by dividing all 6 answers by 117. Willing to hear other opinions though. Maybe the reward should be just enough to compensate the $ already put into this answer, or maybe I should just resolve this market as originally intended and make a new one.

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