Which five organizations will have the highest public impact on Jan 1, 2025, if a market for impact exist?
10
1kṀ391
resolved Jan 29
ResolvedN/A
7%Other
4%
Manifold Markets
31%
GiveWell
0.2%
MIRI
30%
Against Malaria Foundation
3%
FTX Future Fund
24%
Open Philanthropy
0.2%
An organization not listed as an option by the time this market closes (April 5, 2022)

If https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/a-market-for-the-public-impact-of-c resolves to yes, which organizations will be the most valuable?

This will resolve to the top 5 orgs in the impact market, proportional to their valuations

Close date updated to 2024-12-01 1:00 am

Apr 12, 7:40pm: #7 will not be selected as an answer[object Object]

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

When will there be a $5 trillion market cap company?
Largest company end of 2025?
Which company will be among the top 5 publicly traded companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2030?
Which of the following companies will be in the top 20 companies in the world by market cap on Jan 1st 2050?
Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?
73% chance
Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025?
Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2025?
Which companies will be in the top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2025?
What company will have the biggest market cap by the start of 2050?
Which company will be the largest in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?
Sort by:

I don't think such a market exists. Memecoins are used this way sometimes but are primarily not, so I'm not inclined to count that..

oh yeah there's manifund. does that exist? i wonder

is this adjusted for the $ they recieved (i.e. cost-effectiveness) or just total impact?

Thanks, that makes sense. Sold my shares so if no one buys this option (now that you have announced/adjusted the date), you won't have to worry about this problem. :)
The early close date was a mistake. For the sake of fairness, on April 4, 11:59pm I will make note of which organizations existed at the time, and then in 2025, if this answer would have been correct, I'll include it as one of the correct answers. Unsure of what proportion really makes sense, but I think it should be like this: say CEA, not listed at the time, is in the top 5 and would have gotten 17%. Instead, CEA and this answer gets 17, then you renormalize everything by dividing all 6 answers by 117. Willing to hear other opinions though. Maybe the reward should be just enough to compensate the $ already put into this answer, or maybe I should just resolve this market as originally intended and make a new one.

People are also trading

When will there be a $5 trillion market cap company?
Largest company end of 2025?
Which company will be among the top 5 publicly traded companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2030?
Which of the following companies will be in the top 20 companies in the world by market cap on Jan 1st 2050?
Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?
73% chance
Which of the following will have the highest market cap to finish calendar year 2025?
Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2025?
Which companies will be in the top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2025?
What company will have the biggest market cap by the start of 2050?
Which company will be the largest in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy