Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030? | Manifold

Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?

38

1kṀ2915

2030

22%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

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This market is an opportunity to speculate on the future of longevity science and the potential for revolutionary advancements in therapeutic treatments that extend the healthspan of individuals.

The market is connected to the XPRIZE Healthspan competition. The outcome of the market will be considered 'true' if any company, whether part of the XPRIZE healthspan competition or not, successfully develops a therapeutic treatment that meets the following criteria by 2030:

Muscle Function Restoration: The treatment must demonstrably restore muscle function, reversing the effects of aging and contributing to a more youthful physical state.

Cognitive Function Improvement: The treatment should significantly enhance cognitive abilities, reflecting rejuvenation in mental capacities and brain health.
Immune System Enhancement: A key aspect of the treatment should involve bolstering the immune system, reversing at least a decade worth of age-related decline.

In the scenario where a company achieves these milestones outside the XPRIZE framework, a poll will be conducted to assess if the criteria match those of the XPRIZE Healthspan competition.

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