Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
Plus
31
Ṁ14452029
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@NoUsernameSelected A little hard to define, but something like: the state government has to intend to secede, and take some action to do so.
@NcyRocks If a state legislature passes a bill of secession, they've successfully seceded (although at that point it gets interesting as to how long they remain independent). So I'm curious what an unsuccessful attempt would look like, in your view.
@AndrewHartman My understanding was that there have only ever been unsuccessful attempts, during the Civil War; the Confederate states each passed bills of secession but didn't successfully leave the Union.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100?
59% chance
Will any US state secede before 2050?
27% chance
Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?
16% chance
Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?
47% chance
Will any US state secede before 2030?
12% chance
As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.
27% chance
Will there be a new US State by 2055?
44% chance
Will at least one state secede from the USA before the year 2100?
41% chance
Will the US admit a new state by 2030?
19% chance
Will there be a 51st state by the end of 2034?
27% chance