Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
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Would a failed ballot measure (aka referendum, people’s initiative), or a bill that’s introduced in the legislature but voted down count? If it depends on the margin, how?

@yaboi69 No, the bill or ballot measure has to pass.

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Define "attempt"?

@NoUsernameSelected A little hard to define, but something like: the state government has to intend to secede, and take some action to do so.

@NcyRocks If a state legislature passes a bill of secession, they've successfully seceded (although at that point it gets interesting as to how long they remain independent). So I'm curious what an unsuccessful attempt would look like, in your view.

@AndrewHartman My understanding was that there have only ever been unsuccessful attempts, during the Civil War; the Confederate states each passed bills of secession but didn't successfully leave the Union.

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